Weeks 11 - 12: Conflict, Deterrence and International Interaction

 Topics for Reports:

• The Causes of Conflict: Can National Behavior be Inferred from Individual Behavior?
• Transnational Images and Conflict
• The International System and International Conflict
• Deterrence in the Post-Cold War Era
• Conflict Escalation and De-escalation

Basic Readings: 

Achen, Christophe H. and Duncan Snidal

"Rational Deterrence Theory and Comparative Case Studies," World Politics (January 1989)

Dougherty, James E., and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.

* Contending Theories of International Relations, Chs. 5 and 9

Downs, George W.

"The Rational Deterrence Debate," World Politics (January 1989)

Dunn, Lewis

"Deterring the New Nuclear Powers," The Washington Quarterly, Winter 1994, pp.5-29.

George, Alexander L., and Richard Smoke

"Deterrence and Foreign Policy," World Politics (January 1989)

Howard, Michael

* The Causes of Wars (London: Temple Smith, 1983), pp.7-65; 85-151

Jervis, Robert

"Rational Deterrence: Theory and Evidence," World Politics (January 1989)

Lebow, Richard Ned

"Deterrence: The Elusive Variable," World Politics (April 1990)

Payne, Keith B.

"Deterrence and U.S. Strategic Requirements after the ColdWar," Comparative Strategy (July-September 1992), pp.269-282.

Selected Bibliography:

Ardrey, Robert

The Territorial Imperative (New York: Atheneum, 1966)

Aron, Raymond

On War (New York: Doubleday Anchor Books, 1960)

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The Century of Total War (Boston: Beacon Press, 1956)

Blainey, Geoffrey

The Causes of War (New York: The Free Press, 1975)

Bobbitt, Philip, Lawrence Freedman, and Gregory Treverton, eds.

U.S. Nuclear Strategy: A Reader (New York: New York University Press, 1989), pp.64-94 (Bernard Brodie), 143-189 (Albert Wohlstetter), 283- 386 (Herman Kahn, Fred Ikl‚, James R. Schlesinger), 406-437 (Harold Brown), and 466-519.

Brody, Bernard

Strategy in the Missile Age (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1959)

Crosier, Brian

A Theory of Conflict (New York: Charles Scribner's Sons, 1974)

Gallois, Pierre

The Balance of Terror (Boston: Houghton-Mifflin, 1961)

Hobson, John A.

Imperialism (London: George Allen and Unwin, Ltd., 1902)

Holsti, Ole

Crisis, Escalation, War (Montreal: McGill-Queens University Press, 1972)

Kahn, Herman

On Thermonuclear War (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1960)

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Thinking About the Unthinkable (New York: Horizon Press, 1962)

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Thinking About the Unthinkable in the 1980s (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1984)

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On Escalation: Scenarios and Metaphors (New York: Praeger, 1965)

Lenin, Vladimir I.

Imperialism, The Highest Stage of Capitalism (Moscow: State Publishing House, 1929)

Lorenz, Konrad

On Aggression (New York: Harcourt, Brace and World, 1965)

McNeil, Elton B., ed.

The Nature of Human Conflict (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1965)

Richardson, Lewis F.

"Mathematical Theory of War," The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 1 (1957)

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Generalized Foreign Politics (Cambridge: University Press, 1939)

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Statistics of Deadly Quarrels (Pittsburgh: Boxwood Press, 1960)

Robbins, Lionel

The Economic Causes of War (London: Jonathon Cape, 1939)

Rummel, R.J.

"A Field Theory of Social Action with Application to Conflict Within Nations," General Systems Yearbook, Vol. 10 (1965), pp.183-211.

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"A Social Field Theory of Foreign Conflict," Peace Research Society Papers, IV (1966), Peace Research Society International

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"Dimensions of Conflict Behavior Within and Between Nations," General Systems Yearbook, 8 (1963), pp.1-50

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"Dimensions of Dyadic War, 1820-1952," Journal of Conflict Resolution (March 1966), pp.65-73

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"Some Attribute and Behavioral Patterns of Nations," Journal of Peace Research, 3 (1966), pp.201-224

Schumpeter, Joseph

Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy (New York: Harper and Row, 1950)

Singer, J. David and Melvin Small

The Wages of War, 1816-1965: A Statistical Handbook (New York: John Wiley, 1972)

Singer, J. David, ed.

The Correlation of War: I: Research Origins and Rationale (New York: The Free Press, 1979)

Smoke, Richard

War: Controlling Escalation (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1977)

Tarr, David W.

Nuclear Deterrence and International Security: Alternative Nuclear Regimes (New York: Longman, 1991), pp.3-39

von Clausewitz, Carl

On War. Edited and translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976)

Wright, Quincy

The Causes of War and the Conditions of Peace (Longmans, Green and Co., 1935)

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The Study of War (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1965)

 The Individual and Conflict

Bronfenbrenner, Uri

"The Mirror Image in Soviet-American Relations: A Social Psychologist's Report," Journal of Social Issues, 17, (3) (1961), pp.45-46.

Buchanan, W. and Cantril, H.

How Nations See Each Other (Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1953)

Cantril, Hadley, ed.

Tensions That Cause Wars (Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1950)

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The Human Dimension: Experience in Policy Research (New Brunswick, N.J.: Rutgers University Press, 1960)

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The Politics of Despair (New York: Collier Books, 1962)

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The Psychology of Social Movements (New York, N.Y.: Wiley and Sons, 1941)

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Human Nature and Political Systems (New Brunswick, N.J.: Rutgers University Press, 1961)

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The Pattern of Human Concerns (New Brunswick, N.J.: Rutgers University Press, 1965)

________________ and Charles Bumstead

Reflections in the Human Venture (New York: New York University Press, 1960)

Coser, Lewis A.

Continuities in the Study of Social Conflict (New York: The Free Press, 1950)

Eckhardt, William and Ralph K. White

"A Test of the Mirror Image Hypothesis: Kennedy and Khrushchev," Journal of Conflict Resolution, XI, No. 3 (September 1967), pp.325-332

Farrell, John C. and Asa P. Smith, eds.

Image and Reality in World Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1967)

Festinger, Leon

Conflict, Decision and Dissonance (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1964)

Findlay, David J., Ole R. Holsti, and Richard R. Fagen

Enemies in Politics (Chicago: Rand McNally, 1967)

Klineberg, Otto

The Human Dimension in International Relations (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1964)

Lambert, W.E. and Klineberg, O.

"A Pilot Study of the Origin and Development of National Stereotypes," International Social Science Journal, (11) (1959), pp.221-236

Lasswell, Harold

Psychopathology and Politics (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1930)

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World Politics and Personal Insecurity (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1935)

Midlarsky, Manus I.

On War: Political Violence in the International System (New York: The Free Press, 1975)

Risk Assessment -- Study Questions, Weeks 11-12

• What is the approximate US population today?
• Approximately how many people die in the US each year?
• What fraction of US deaths are due to cancer?
• What fraction of US deaths are due to smoking?
• What fraction of deaths are due to vehicle accidents?
• Can you name a cancer that seems to be dietary-related?
• What is an oncogene? What is a suppressor gene?
• How does the "multi-hit" model of cancer induction relate to the genetic control of cancer?
• What are some laws and agencies involved in carcinogen regulation?
• Why are animals in feeding tests for carcinogenicity fed so much more of the chemical being tested than humans are likely to be exposed to?
• What is the linear hypothesis of cancer induction? Why would a quadratic hypothesis give lower predictions for the risk of cancer from low doses of a carcinogen?
• Mice and rats are a lot smaller and have much shorter lives than humans. How are these factors taken into account in scaling cancer risk from experimental animals to humans?
• How many extra people in the U.S. would contract cancer if the EPA permitted exposure to 100 chemicals, each of which increased the the risk of cancer by one chance in 100,000?
• Roughly how many cubic meters of air does an adult breath in each day? (This is also roughly the number of kg. of air -- 1 cubic meter equals 1.2 kg at sea level.)
• Roughly how many liters of liquid does an adult consume each day?
• What is probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)? Why is it used for low-probability, high-consequence events?
• How is it possible to estimate the probability of a catastrophic event that has never happened from the known frequency of less serious incidents that have already occurred?
• What are some of the weaknesses that introduce large uncertainties into PRA predictions for the frequency of low-probability events?