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North Korea

Introduction: Identified as part of the axis of evil in 2002 by US President George W. Bush, the Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea (DPRK), or North Korea, remains a source of grave international proliferation concern today. In January 2003, North Korea announced its withdrawalfrom the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found it in non-compliance with its safeguards agreements in 2000. In February 2005, the DPRK government publicly claimed for the first time that it possesses nuclear weapons.

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Due to the extremely closed nature of the North Korean communist state, exact information on its nuclear capabilities is not available. It is believed that North Korea possesses enough separated plutonium for some six to eight nuclear weapons. More plutonium is present in the form of spent nuclear fuel rods at the Yongbyon nuclear reactor. However, it remains unclear whether North Korea has actually produced a nuclear warhead small enough to be mounted on a missile.

Numerous multilateral and bilateral efforts to engage North Korea diplomatically in response to its nuclear weapons program have remained fruitless. North Korea joined the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1985 and concluded its safeguards agreement with the IAEA after much delay in April 1992. In May 1992, the first IAEA inspections of declared sites and facilities took place. In early 1993, the DPRK denied IAEA access to two suspect nuclear waste sites. In March 1993, North Korea announced its intention to withdraw from the NPT and further obstructed the work of IAEA inspectors. Bilateral negotiations initiated by the United States diffused the crisis and resulted in the Agreed Framework of 1994. Under this agreement, North Korea froze its plutonium program for almost a decade and allowed for IAEA verification of the freeze. However, neither the US nor North Korea was fully satisfied with the agreement reached and the Agreed Framework subsequently collapsed after President Bush came into office in 2001.

North Korea ’s extensive ballistic missiles program is based on short and medium-range missiles. A long-range missile test conducted in 1998 failed, but if further developed, the Taepo Dong may be able to deliver a small payload. North Korea’s role as the leading exporter of ballistic missiles poses another reason for concern. It has sold missile technologies based on the Taepo Dong system to Egypt, Iran, Libya, Pakistan and Syria.

Renewed efforts to diplomatically resolve the crisis surrounding the North Korean nuclear program have been made through the Six-Party talks that started in August 2003, which include China, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Russia and the United States. Negotiations on North Korea’s nuclear program have become a cyclical pattern in which an agreement between the US and North Korea is reached in crisis, but with one country waiting for the other to act before fulfilling their own promises. There remains a deep lack of trust on both sides.

Because North Korea is not capable of matching US military strength, it views its nuclear program as a means of providing deterrence against a US military attack as well as a negotiating card for economic aid.

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